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Wired News reports that on three sites where people bet on the outcome of the Presidential race, the two presidential candidates are nearly neck and neck as they were in 2000. And, as in the last election, the outcome could depend on Florida. (Heaven help us.)
Kerry has, to date, been an incredibly weak candidate. Given the negative press and buzz Bush and his cronies have generated, it would seem there could be no doubt he would lose in a landslide. But Republicans have real tenacity in the heartland and so it remains to be seen whether efforts by grassroots groups like the 2.2 million member MoveOn.Org and others can unseat the king, er, president.
On News Futures, where people place bets and win prizes, Bush is given a 47 % chance of winning re-election.
At the Iowa Electronic Markets, an exchange run by the University of Iowa that allows participants to wager up to $500 predicting the election outcome, Bush and Kerry each have a 50 percent likelihood of winning. At, a wagering site based in Ireland that has no betting limits, Bush’s odds of winning are slightly higher, at 52 percent, compared with 48 percent for Kerry.